Japan's Super-Aged Society: How Adult Diapers Are Becoming a Necessity

According to Japanese media reports, on April 12th, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan released its latest report stating that as of October 1, 2024, the total population of Japan has plummeted to below 122 million, showing an accelerating downward trend for 14 consecutive years. Among them, the number of pure national population excluding foreigners in Japan has dropped sharply by 0.8% compared with 2023, breaking the record of the largest annual decline since 1950. Even more concerning is that the number of newborns is expected to fall below the 700000 mark for the first time in 2025 (a further decrease of 12.5% from 2022), and there will be a "death crossover" for 18 consecutive years (the number of deaths exceeds the number of births). In terms of population structure, the number of people aged 65 and above has exceeded 38 million, accounting for 31.2% of the total population. There is one elderly person in every three people, ranking first in the world. Experts warned that Japan is entering the "super aging society" at a faster than expected speed, and the shrinking trend of the Population Pyramid has been irreversible. It is expected that by 2025, the elderly dependency ratio will worsen to the worst level in history of 1:1.5.

According to the latest data, with the continuous increase in Japan's elderly population, the size of the adult diaper market is showing explosive growth. In 2024, the total sales volume of adult incontinence products in Japan has exceeded 9.5 billion pieces, an increase of over 35% compared to 2020, and the market size has soared to nearly 15 billion yuan. By 2025, the market size of "adult urinary incontinence" in Japan is expected to reach 2.5 billion US dollars, accounting for nearly 25% of the global adult diaper market and firmly ranking first in the world.   
According to expert analysis, as Japan's aging population continues to deepen, the proportion of people aged 65 and above has exceeded 30%. In the next 40 years, the demand for adult diapers will grow exponentially. The nursing supplies industry predicts that by 2030, the size of Japan's adult diaper market may double, becoming one of the fastest-growing categories in daily consumer goods. This trend not only reflects the harsh reality of aging society in Japan, but also heralds unprecedented business opportunities for the adult care industry.

Japan remains a key player in this market, but other regions—including North America, Europe, and rapidly aging societies like China and South Korea—are also contributing to the industry's robust expansion. Analysts predict that innovations in absorbency, comfort, and sustainability will further propel market growth in the coming years.

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